For as much as Albertans tend to deny it, the fact is that their province does see some precipitation, although, truthfully, down here in the southern reaches, not an excessive amount. Not a hundred metres on, the No. Above the Lakes to the north, seemingly squat at feet, Crowsnest Ridge rises protectively. Invisible in the trees, an old path winds away to the south-west, passing the base of the highest mountain in the region, Ptolemy, into whose 9, foot-high crags an RCAF Dakota slammed on January 23rd,killing all seven aboard.
I discuss this report more here. I thought it was illustrative of some interesting issues: The Perfect Backcast What they are doing is what I call "backcasting," that is, taking a predictive model and running it backwards to see how well it preforms against historical data.
This is a perfectly normal thing to do. And wow, what a fit. I have done a lot of modeling and forecasting in my life. However, I have never, ever backcast any model and gotten results this good.
I mean it is absolutely amazing. Of course, one can come up with many models that backcast perfectly but have zero predictive power. And in fact, our confidence in the climate models based on their near-perfect back-casting should be tempered by the fact that when the models first were run backwards, they were terrible at predicting history.
In fact, it is fairly easy to demonstrate that the models are far better at predicting history than they are at predicting the future. Like the Washington Redskins algorithm, which failed in after backcasting so well, climate models have done a terrible job in predicting the first years of the future.
This is the reason that neither this nor any other global warming alarmist report every shows a chart grading how model forecasts have performed against actual data: Because their record has been terrible. Below is the model forecasts James Hansen, whose fingerprints are all over this report, used before Congress in in yellow, orange, and redwith a comparison to the actual temperature record in blue.
You can see the forecasts began diverging from reality even as early as Based on actual CO2 production, the world is tracking, from a CO2 standpoint, between the orange and red lines.
However, temperature is no where near the predicted values. So the climate models are perfect at predicting history, but begin diverging immediately as we move into the future.
That is probably why the IPCC resets its forecasts every 5 years, so they can hit the reset button on this divergence.
As an interesting parallel, temperature measurements of history with trees have very similar divergence issues when carried into the future.
What the Hell happened in ? Looking again at the backcast chart at the top of this article, peek at the blue line.
Normally, I would have classified the basic premise of Craig Loehle's recent paper, as summarized at Climate Audit, as a blinding glimpse of the obvious. Unfortunately, the climate science world is in desperate need of a few BGO's, so the paper is timely. The dotted lines between work and personal life -- musings on how to think about your job. But even in those kinds of line jobs, I agree with you — I so deeply admire people who can make the best of any task by trying to be the best they can, leave a good impression, and do a good job, full stop. Notify me of new posts by email. Post. 54 Degrees, Not 52 Degrees. I have posted a pair of Utube videos that contain a very slight revision of my thesis about the Washington, D.C. map template. This is being posted as two parts because there are so many images in them and due to time restraints on Utube videos.
This is what the models predict to have been the world temperature without man-made forcings. The blue line is supposed to represent the climate absent man.Meet Inspiring Speakers and Experts at our + Global Conferenceseries Events with over + Conferences, + Symposiums and + Workshops on Medical, Pharma, Engineering, Science, Technology and Business..
Explore and learn more about . A few years back, I asked people to share the coolest Excel tricks they pfmlures.com reader request, we’re doing it again — and this time we’re including Word too. So: in .
A page about Crowsnest, Alberta, describing the history of its industry and society, its layout, accommodations, tourist attractions and recreation.
A time line from before writing began to the present, linked to Andrew Roberts' book Social Science History and to other resources. Note: The following post accompanies Takuan Seiyo’s latest pfmlures.com are being kept “sticky” until tonight.
Scroll down for other posts that have appeared since Wednesday. Certain posts at Gates of Vienna, among them those by Takuan Seiyo, tend to attract the attention and comments of people who are preoccupied with the Jews.
Devil In The Dark () The Horta was an example of Silicon life.; Now we are really sailing off into terra incognito.
"Here be dragons" and all that. But if you have starships, you almost have to have aliens (Isaac Asimov's Foundation trilogy being the most notable exception).The "science" is called Astrobiology, the famous "science in search of a subject".